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October 2019 Market Update & Outlook image

Monthly Recap After September's noisy month of being dominated by WeWork and a potential impeachment of President Trump, October was equally as busy with a Fed rate cut, continued impeachment discussions, a bailout of WeWork by Softbank and much much more. The markets continued their march higher as the economic expansion continues to break records with each passing month. But one must wonder how much longer can things continue on this path. Negative rates does not make much sense and is a very big experiment most of the developed world is engaged in. My hypothesis is it's not going to end well. A wise man once said that we often meet our destiny on the ...

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September 2019 Market Outlook & Update image

Monthly Recap September was a particularly "noisy" month and was dominated by 2 main stories: 1. impeachment of President Trump and 2. WeWork's IPO and alleged abuses by it's founder Adam Neumann. Starting with impeachment, Nancy Pelosi launched a formal impeachment inquiry after Trump withheld military aid for Ukraine days before telling President Volodymyr Zelenskiy he should investigate Biden and his son Hunter, who was on the board of a Ukrainian gas company. There are now several whistle blowers who've stepped forward who were present or part of an effort to lock down the call records. Then days later President Trump requested China should also start an investigation into the Biden's. It's hard to believe anything ...

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August 2019 Market Outlook & Update image

Monthly Recap Thank goodness August is over with as there was a tremendous amount of noise. Things seemed to reach a fever pitch this past month with the ever evolving US-China trade war, protests in Hong Kong and interest rates which continued to fall globally. The US stock market started off weak and ended up posting only modest losses for the month which was a win in my book due to all the negative headlines that occurred during the month. To recap, here are some of the noteworthy events and stories from August: China responded to President Donald Trump’s tariff threat with another escalation of the trade war, letting the yuan tumble to the weakest level in more than a ...

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July 2019 Market Outlook & Update image

Monthly Recap July was a choppy month with a lot of headlines and somehow the stock market managed to be positive on the month. At the time of my writing however, the markets have had a rough start to August. But as we've seen in the past downturns, they tend to be short lived. To recap, here are some of the noteworthy events and stories from July: The US economic expansion hit 121 months and is now officially the longest in history!The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by .25% to the 2-2.25% range. The market was pricing in 3 interest rate cuts this year and may have been disappointed in Powell's perspective that this is just a ...

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June 2019 Market Update & Outlook image

Monthly Recap June produced solid returns in the stock and bond markets as US interest rate cut rhetoric was front and center. We had some close calls with an air strike on Iran being called off at the last minute. To recap, here are just some of the noteworthy events and stories from June: President Trump ordered a military strike on Iran and then called it off at the last minute. According to Trump, he called off retaliatory strikes on three Iranian sites following the downing of a U.S. Navy drone because the action wouldn’t have been “proportionate.” That was a close call!There was a break in the US-China trade war (not to be confused with the ...

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May 2019 Market Update & Outlook image

Monthly Recap Another busy month of data and dram with the markets dropping and trade war escalating. To recap, here are just some of the noteworthy events and stories from May: President Trump increased tariffs on Chinese goods to 25% which caught the markets off guard. China responded with their own set of tariffs on around $60B worth of US goods. This continued escalation adds uncertainty at a fragile time in the economy and will surely knock some growth off GDP. Beijing’s threat to use its dominance of rare earths in the trade war risks serious disruption to U.S. industry, by starving manufacturers of components commonplace in everything from cars to dishwashers and military equipmentWith the trade wars front ...

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April 2019 Market Update & Outlook image

Monthly Recap Another busy month with GDP surprising to the upside, Uber preparing for an IPO and much more. To recap, here are just some of the noteworthy events and stories from April: President Trump pressured the Federal Reserve publicly to lower interest rates so the economy can "take off". GDP expanded at a 3.2 percent annualized rate in Q1 2019 on a big boost from inventories and trade that offset slowdowns in consumer and business spending. That followed a 2.2 percent advance in the prior three months.The Fed left rates unchanged when it met during the month. Powell said they view the recent slowdown in inflation as transitory. The Fed doesn't appear to be motivated to move ...

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March 2019 Market Update & Outlook image

Monthly Recap We saw a lot of data points in March along with an inverted yield curve, a Fed pivot and much, much more. To recap, here are just some of the noteworthy events and stories from March: The Mueller investigation wrapped up without any recommendation for further action, specifically against the President. It was a tense weekend while everyone waited for Barr's report. To Trump, it was vindication and the President took to twitter multiple times.US GDP was revised down to 2.2% from 2.6% in the 4th quarter of 2018. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project that growth in GDP will slow to 1.5 percent in the first quarter, the slowest pace in two years.Beto O'Rouke announced ...

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February 2019 Market Update & Outlook image

Monthly Recap February we witnessed the same recurring themes and headlines in the US and abroad. The equity markets posted solid gains as the markets seem to believe that the Fed has got it's back once again. To recap, here are just some of the noteworthy events and stories from February: Amazon pulls out of NYC due to political backlashThe U.S.’s financial burden is growing despite a strong economy. Total public debt climbed to more than $22 trillion as of Feb. 11, according to a Treasury Department report. The US avoided another government shutdown, however, the President then declared national emergency to use funds to build the great wallBernie Sanders announced his candidacy for the presidency in 2020Trump met ...

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Cut Capital Gains Liability by Investing in Opportunity Zones image

What does it take to spur private capital to invest in areas that are struggling to create jobs and develop their communities? Would a tax break on capital gains realized by investors be enough to inspire them to reinvest those gains in low-income urban and rural communities across the country? Congress has decided to give that theory a try by creating something called Opportunity Zones: designated areas of the country that are crying out for long-term investments but which, until now, have offered little incentive for such speculation. The idea, established by Congress in the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA), offers a mechanism that enables investors with capital gains tax liabilities across the country to receive favorable ...

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