Dear Clients & Friends,
The S&P 500 (and other equities markets) had a very strong month posting 5%+ gains after a subdued March which saw markets mostly move sideways. $DOGE has defied gravity as more people are exchanging their dollars for dog money. If you haven't heard that line, check out this fantastic rap video. As funny as it is, there are some real truth bombs being dropped. The level of inflation we're experiencing is much more than what we're able to earn buying bonds and especially in savings accounts. In fact, when you factor in inflation (and expected inflation) the entire US treasury bond market curve is negatively yielding.
In fact, prior to the pandemic, ...
Continue Reading
Clients & Friends
Another quarter is behind us and with it has brought us Spring and more vaccine supply. As of the time of my writing this update, I am still not yet vaccinated and have had difficulty getting an appointment. I am thankfully booked in the coming days but we have to drive 3 hours away to get it. There's light at the end of the tunnel as it looks like 90% of the US will be vaccinated by the end of the summer which will lead to a lot of people coming out of hibernation en masse. I do wonder how many folks will feel comfortable if venues, restaurants and other gatherings go back ...
Continue Reading
Dear Clients & Friends,
I think we're all thinking it; so long 2020 you won't be missed! However, if the first week of 2021 is an omen of what's the come this year, I'd prefer to unsubscribe. Q4 was generally speaking a very positive quarter, especially in light of the year most have had and the impacts from COVID on all of us. To the pulse of the collective, the vaccines feel like a light at the end of a dark tunnel. The US presidential election went smoother than most predicted although some were surprised at how split we appear to be as a country. Most folks I have spoken with believed Biden was going to ...
Continue Reading
TLDR:
Economic data is deteriorating fast with Q2 GDP likely down 35% and unemployment reaching 20%+.Opening up the economy is going to be tough if not combined with testing, tracking and capacity at hospitals.Corporate debt defaults are expected to surge to 10-15%.2020 S&P earnings are set to decline but analysts opinions are differing drastically. I favor a cautious approach for portfolios for the near term as markets have almost fully recovered their lows reached in March.
There are a lot of questions about what direction the market will be headed next. As it stands now, the S&P is down around 10% YTD, and the NASDAQ is flat driven by companies such as Amazon, Google, Netflix, Apple, Microsoft and several others. My conversations ...
Continue Reading
I made a decision in December to switch from monthly updates to quarterly ones and of course it's been one of the most active quarters I've ever experienced. I truly hope everyone is safe, healthy and most importantly finding productive ways to spend the time in quarantine.
As I write this update on Saturday from my house in Austin TX, the virus continues to ravage our communities and the global economy. The Fed has embarked on an unlimited monetary stimulus while the government has passed a $2 Trillion stimulus package with likely more to come. There's a lot of pain out there in the world and while I do get a sense of camaraderie similar ...
Continue Reading
First off, I apologize for not putting a note together until now. I've waited because I continue to read different stats and information on COVID-19 and wanted to wait until all of the information was confirmed. But at this point I think there's enough known about it and it's potential impact on our health and the economy. I apologize in advance for the length and wanted to have my entire perspective in 1 post.
What is COVID 19?
COVID-19 coronavirus is a novel coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China, and has spread to more than 30 countries in Asia, Europe, the Middle East and now the U.S. The World Health Organization and the United States have declared public ...
Continue Reading
The repo market has been stressed recently and the Fed has had to step in and inject a lot of capital to help alleviate the problem. But they don't know what's causing the problem or how much money it will take to fix it.
In this Dark Corners, we will explore the repo market in more detail. But first, what is a repo? “Repo” is short for repurchase agreement. A repurchase agreement is essentially a short-term loan, usually between banks. Imagine you are a bank and you have clients who need to make payroll, but you don’t have enough cash on hand to cover the withdrawal. So you pledge a portion of your holdings (typically ...
Continue Reading
As we enter a new decade, I thought it was appropriate to take a look at the past one as well as my expectations for what's to come specifically in the investment world. I can only imagine there will be countless technological breakthroughs during the next 10 years just as we saw over the previous 10 and am excited for the ones that move humanity forward and not just ones that keep us glued to a phone (or whatever tech comes next). Before we get into 2020 and beyond, let's take a quick stroll through memory lane.
2010's
The past 10 years saw incredible gains in the US stock market as few expected the record breaking rally. If ...
Continue Reading
Monthly Recap
November marked a continuation of the impeachment hearings and Hong Kong unrest, Michael Bloomberg throwing his hat in the 2020 Presidential race and a house bill decriminalizing marijuana federally. However, the US equity markets saw solid returns with the S&P returning over +3.5%, while international and emerging markets posted modest gains or were flat. Diversified portfolios continued to struggle vs. the S&P 500 since we saw bond and commodity markets pull back. The US large cap indices continue to be a bright star in the equity markets, although things don't last forever and diversification should not be abandoned.
As always, below is a recap of November’s noteworthy events:
Political:
Testimony by various people (Gordon Sondland, Kurt Volker and ...
Continue Reading
Monthly Recap
After September's noisy month of being dominated by WeWork and a potential impeachment of President Trump, October was equally as busy with a Fed rate cut, continued impeachment discussions, a bailout of WeWork by Softbank and much much more. The markets continued their march higher as the economic expansion continues to break records with each passing month. But one must wonder how much longer can things continue on this path. Negative rates does not make much sense and is a very big experiment most of the developed world is engaged in. My hypothesis is it's not going to end well. A wise man once said that we often meet our destiny on the ...
Continue Reading
