Clients & Friends,
It's been a busy month with the delta variant running rampant in parts of the U.S. and world, and renewed concerns over reimplemented lockdowns taking the center stage. The hospitalizations appear overwhelmingly concentrated by those who are unvaccinated. While the amount of people still not vaccinated is concerning, the vaccines are now battle-tested against delta with strong results. Hopefully those who are not vaccinated will take notice.
In economic data, Q2 GDP was released and came in at 6.5% which was materially lower than the 8.4% estimate. A large reason for the miss was related to inventories and supply chain issues. Meaning, inventories were drawn down but not replenished as supply chain issues prevented ...
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Clients & Friends,
June was a relatively muted month so we'll keep this month's update short and sweet. Some trends have persisted such as housing prices which continue to climb while inventory levels are at historical lows. The hottest debate now is whether inflation will be persistent or transitory. Battle lines are being drawn and portfolios are being adjusted. But even the Google searches for transitory may prove transitory 😜.😅
According to this survey by BofA, the transitory gang has more members.
A key moment was when Jerome Powell made hawkish comments on the 16th on discussing scaling back mortgage bond purchases and rate hikes in 2023, which is sooner than expected. Long term bond yields spiked ...
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May was an eventful month and while the S&P fell ~4% at one point, crypto stole the volatility show. $ETH, for instance, rose ~50% during the first 12 days and then proceeded to fall >50% over the next 12 days before recovering some. While $BTC lost almost 50% of it's value, it didn't experience the gains $ETH had early in the month and thus is down substantially more over the same time period. If you look at some of the altcoins, some of them experienced drops of 80%+ raising many questions over whether crypto is an asset class or not. I have noticed that anytime there is a significant pullback in crypto in a short ...
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Dear Clients & Friends,
The S&P 500 (and other equities markets) had a very strong month posting 5%+ gains after a subdued March which saw markets mostly move sideways. $DOGE has defied gravity as more people are exchanging their dollars for dog money. If you haven't heard that line, check out this fantastic rap video. As funny as it is, there are some real truth bombs being dropped. The level of inflation we're experiencing is much more than what we're able to earn buying bonds and especially in savings accounts. In fact, when you factor in inflation (and expected inflation) the entire US treasury bond market curve is negatively yielding.
In fact, prior to the pandemic, ...
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Clients & Friends
Another quarter is behind us and with it has brought us Spring and more vaccine supply. As of the time of my writing this update, I am still not yet vaccinated and have had difficulty getting an appointment. I am thankfully booked in the coming days but we have to drive 3 hours away to get it. There's light at the end of the tunnel as it looks like 90% of the US will be vaccinated by the end of the summer which will lead to a lot of people coming out of hibernation en masse. I do wonder how many folks will feel comfortable if venues, restaurants and other gatherings go back ...
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Dear Clients & Friends,
I think we're all thinking it; so long 2020 you won't be missed! However, if the first week of 2021 is an omen of what's the come this year, I'd prefer to unsubscribe. Q4 was generally speaking a very positive quarter, especially in light of the year most have had and the impacts from COVID on all of us. To the pulse of the collective, the vaccines feel like a light at the end of a dark tunnel. The US presidential election went smoother than most predicted although some were surprised at how split we appear to be as a country. Most folks I have spoken with believed Biden was going to ...
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TLDR:
Economic data is deteriorating fast with Q2 GDP likely down 35% and unemployment reaching 20%+.Opening up the economy is going to be tough if not combined with testing, tracking and capacity at hospitals.Corporate debt defaults are expected to surge to 10-15%.2020 S&P earnings are set to decline but analysts opinions are differing drastically. I favor a cautious approach for portfolios for the near term as markets have almost fully recovered their lows reached in March.
There are a lot of questions about what direction the market will be headed next. As it stands now, the S&P is down around 10% YTD, and the NASDAQ is flat driven by companies such as Amazon, Google, Netflix, Apple, Microsoft and several others. My conversations ...
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I made a decision in December to switch from monthly updates to quarterly ones and of course it's been one of the most active quarters I've ever experienced. I truly hope everyone is safe, healthy and most importantly finding productive ways to spend the time in quarantine.
As I write this update on Saturday from my house in Austin TX, the virus continues to ravage our communities and the global economy. The Fed has embarked on an unlimited monetary stimulus while the government has passed a $2 Trillion stimulus package with likely more to come. There's a lot of pain out there in the world and while I do get a sense of camaraderie similar ...
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First off, I apologize for not putting a note together until now. I've waited because I continue to read different stats and information on COVID-19 and wanted to wait until all of the information was confirmed. But at this point I think there's enough known about it and it's potential impact on our health and the economy. I apologize in advance for the length and wanted to have my entire perspective in 1 post.
What is COVID 19?
COVID-19 coronavirus is a novel coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China, and has spread to more than 30 countries in Asia, Europe, the Middle East and now the U.S. The World Health Organization and the United States have declared public ...
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The repo market has been stressed recently and the Fed has had to step in and inject a lot of capital to help alleviate the problem. But they don't know what's causing the problem or how much money it will take to fix it.
In this Dark Corners, we will explore the repo market in more detail. But first, what is a repo? “Repo” is short for repurchase agreement. A repurchase agreement is essentially a short-term loan, usually between banks. Imagine you are a bank and you have clients who need to make payroll, but you don’t have enough cash on hand to cover the withdrawal. So you pledge a portion of your holdings (typically ...
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