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May 2016 image

  Dear clients, potential clients and valued contacts, May turned out to be a fairly boring month.  While we speculated there would be sell in May and go-away, things didn't quite play out in that fashion.  The Fed has gone from dovish to hawkish back to dovish and then back again to hawkish since December of 2015.  As as result, the US dollar (and as a result commodities and stocks) have gotten whipsawed.  The Fed claims to be data dependent, but I'm not sure what data they are looking at.  While new home starts jumped in April half  of the strength in the report came from the  Northeast.  In April 2015, the Northeast built 1,000 homes.  This April, they built 5,000 ...

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April 2016 image

Dear Clients and Friends, April was a month which saw most global markets continue to rebound off their February lows. It was also a very newsworthy month where the Doha meeting failed to agree to terms on oil production cuts mainly due to Saudi Arabia's fixation on Iran, Brazil started the impeachment process of Dilma Rouseff and the Fed maintained it's current interest rate policy while leaving the door open for a June increase. As you can see from the images below, P/E ratios for the S&P are still climbing, mainly as a result from falling profits. The Atlanta Federal Reserve maintains a forecasting model for GDP which they update regularly. The most recent forecast expected GDP for Q1 to be ...

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March 2016 image

Dear Friends and Clients, February was a very volatile month in the markets where a negative feedback loop persisted in the first half of the month.  The 10 year treasury bond fell below 1.60% as flight to safety and deflationary pressures were top of mind.  WTI crude hit a 12 year low closing at almost $26 on February 12th and rebounded to almost $34 by end of the month on the heels of talks by Russia and Saudi Arabia reducing oil output.  Chesapeake and Linn Energy fell 40% and 50% respectively early in the month on fears of bankruptcy.  The 10 year Japanese treasury bond went negative while the German 10 year bond came very close to going negative as well.  In fact, there’s over $7 Trillion (yes Trillion!) ...

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