Categories ArchivesUncategorized

April 2019 Market Update & Outlook image

Monthly Recap Another busy month with GDP surprising to the upside, Uber preparing for an IPO and much more. To recap, here are just some of the noteworthy events and stories from April: President Trump pressured the Federal Reserve publicly to lower interest rates so the economy can "take off". GDP expanded at a 3.2 percent annualized rate in Q1 2019 on a big boost from inventories and trade that offset slowdowns in consumer and business spending. That followed a 2.2 percent advance in the prior three months.The Fed left rates unchanged when it met during the month. Powell said they view the recent slowdown in inflation as transitory. The Fed doesn't appear to be motivated to move ...

Continue Reading

March 2019 Market Update & Outlook image

Monthly Recap We saw a lot of data points in March along with an inverted yield curve, a Fed pivot and much, much more. To recap, here are just some of the noteworthy events and stories from March: The Mueller investigation wrapped up without any recommendation for further action, specifically against the President. It was a tense weekend while everyone waited for Barr's report. To Trump, it was vindication and the President took to twitter multiple times.US GDP was revised down to 2.2% from 2.6% in the 4th quarter of 2018. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project that growth in GDP will slow to 1.5 percent in the first quarter, the slowest pace in two years.Beto O'Rouke announced ...

Continue Reading

Top Estate Planning Mistakes image

Estate planning is a crucial element of wealth management that our firm assists our clients with.  While we don't get paid to provide and write estate plans, we're very involved in this process for clients.  After countless meetings, conversations and research, below is a list of the most common mistakes in estate planning.   Failure to Create a Bypass Trust When First Spouse Dies:  In past years, the estate tax exemption was wasted when assets were left to the surviving spouse.  But under the current system, the deceased spouse's unused estate tax exemption can be used by the surviving spouse. Joint Tenants with Right of Survivorship Account Titling:  This designation is common when opening bank and brokerage accounts, but prevents ...

Continue Reading

Italy’s Banking Crisis image

As Europe struggles to understand the fallout of Brexit, there is a real crisis brewing. A very large and real concern in Europe are non-performing loans sitting on Italian banks balance sheets. These loans represent roughly 17% of the market which equates to €400 billion (at today's exchange rate comes to 25% of Italian GDP!).  The future for Italian banks will either be a bail-in (think what happened to Cyprus depositors) or a bail-out which is harder under EU guidelines.  The bail-in is, of course, a formula for bank runs.  And this will not only affect Italy.  Italian loans are packaged and resold as others, and Italian banks take loans from other European banks. These banks in turn have borrowed ...

Continue Reading

The 10 Best Days Propaganda image

    I read a tremendous amount of research as I should as portfolio manager on behalf of my clients.  Some is good, some is bad, some is wrong and others are what I like to call Wall Street propaganda.  Having worked at 4 large financial institutions in my career, I've seen this propaganda take many shapes through the years.  I recently was sent a research report from a well known asset manager (that shall not be named) which was perpetuating a myth I have seen my entire career in wealth management.  This myth is regarding missing the best 10, 20 and 30 days in the market.  As the myth goes (and is perpetuated), if you missed  the 10 best days ...

Continue Reading

The Credit Strategists Thoughts image

On Wednesday, John Mauldin posted a recent research from Michael Lewitt, author of The Credit Strategist where he discusses corporate debt, commodities, climate change, Obamacare and private equity.  One of the many hats I wear is research analyst  and I enjoy sharing unique and thought provoking viewpoints.  This one's a doozy and a great read. As John Mauldin highlights in his intro, the opening paragraph is blunt and to the point.  It starts "Commodity prices are plunging, the dollar is powering higher, the yield curve is flattening, ObamaCare is collapsing, global trade is plummeting and terrorism is spreading across the globe. The high yield credit markets are sending distress signals and 10-year swap spreads are negative. Energy companies are going out of business ...

Continue Reading

Rise of the Machine Advisors image

In the past few years there's been many new investment firms created such as Wealthfront, Betterment, Personal Capital, and many others, that claim to use technology to create better portfolios at a fraction of the cost.  They eliminate high fees and offer "sophisticated investment management and advice" as one of the popular websites claims.  For someone who doesn't want to work with a human advisor and who doesn't have the knowledge or time to research investments, these services can offer value over opening an online brokerage account and guessing on what to do next.  Besides, haven't we all heard the horror stories about the guy who stole money from his clients or the broker who lost your friend all ...

Continue Reading

Quarterly Insights image

Each quarter Hoisington Management creates a quarterly update.  This quarter's update was very thought provoking so we thought we'd share it with our readers.  I've included a link to their update below and provided some bullet points that  I found most interesting.  Enjoy!   Q3 Highlights: U.S. government debt now stands at 103% of GDP. If private debt is included, the ratio climbs to about 370% of GDP. Scholarly studies indicate that real per capita GDP growth should slow by about one-quarter to one-third from the long-run trend when the total debt-to-GDP ratio rises into the range between 250% and 275%. Since surpassing this level in the late 1990s, real per capita GDP has grown just 1% per annum, much less than the 1.9% ...

Continue Reading

Danger Ahead, A Message From Carl Icahn image

I posted a video this week from Carl Icahn entitled "Danger Ahead".  In the video, Carl discusses some warning signs that he sees in the markets that have been building since 2007/08 in a way that anyone can understand.  It's 15 minutes long and well worth the watch.  I hope you enjoy.   Danger Ahead   Proper Wealth Management's blog is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of Jared Toren. Any views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest. Jared Toren is the CEO of Proper Wealth Management, LLC, a Texas based Registered Investment Advisor.   All material presented herein is believed ...

Continue Reading

A Quick Thought On China image

China has been on everyone's mind the past few months and I believe it's important to understand it's impact.  A China whose growth is slowing is a China that buys materially less resources from around the world. Barry Ritholtz published the above chart, which shows the amounts of raw materials that China buys as a percentage of world production.  If growth slows down, this could have a dramatic impact on the prices of raw materials and on the companies of those who sell them...         Proper Wealth Management's blog is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of Jared Toren. Any views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as ...

Continue Reading

This is a unique website which will require a more modern browser to work!

Please upgrade today!